Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place

Yankees’ Playoff Chances in 2024: A Tale of Two Predictions

The Yankees’ playoff chances in 2024 are not looking optimistic, according to stat analysts over at Baseball Reference. They predict that the Yankees will have only a 2.7 percent chance to make the postseason and win just 71.6 games, which is worse than the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. These projections are in stark contrast to Fangraphs, who predict the Yankees to win 88 games, the fourth-most in all of baseball.

However, BetRivers Sportsbook is more bullish on the Yankees, projecting them to win 91.5 games with the third-best odds to win the most games in baseball at +650. Despite this projection, Baseball Reference’s Simple Rating System calculates run differential and strength of schedule from the previous year’s prior 100 games but does not take into account injuries, players or variance.

The Yankees have made significant offseason acquisitions, including Juan Soto, which should greatly improve their offense. Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, the Yankees have a chance to turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season.


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